The world is currently tablet crazy. Most times I get a seat on the bus it is next to someone who has a tablet of some kind, mostly the Apple variety. The cautionary tale is the recent HP fiasco so what do we know about tablets and what can we expect?
On the one had you have a tablet built buy a respected PC and engineering company based on technology they paid over $1b for. No one seemed to want it, possibly because it used an operating system no one had heard of, Web OS. The “over the air” updates seemed to have no appeal and in the end they sold for a fraction of the original asking price. On the other had there is a completely closed tablet system that locks you into buying only from essentially one store and these are selling like hot cakes.
So the short answer to the question “is there a tablet effect?” is “yes.” It’s not a laptop or a desk top but as one writer put it a “forearm top” device. These devices are stealing sales from the lower end of the laptop and PC markets. Another point to note is that despite what the Apple Lovers might think Apple did not invent the form factor but no one can argue they did make is useable. That being said it is not the iPad effect but still the generic tablet effect that is at work here.
In one or two years time the iPad, court cases withstanding, will probably not be the dominate player in the market and definitely not the only player. It is also highly unlikely that the tablet will be the dominate player in the market, the notebook and PC will still be very strong. Also, given the way the computer market goes there may be a whole new form factor in 2-3 years.
One reason is that the price point is still too high at $800-$1000 for a decently configured machine that is a lot of PC or notebook these days. The problem the other makers have made is trying to conform to the Apple price points, this is one reason why they have not done very well as yet. Apple is highly unlikely to move out of the stratospheric market segment which leaves the rest of it for the other players. Rule number one, don’t try to out Apple, Apple. Apple buyers will pay the extra because it is an Apple, a pattern of behaviour that Steve Jobs and his other senior staff understand very well.
If someone like Samsung or Google can get a reasonable device under $500 and even down as low as $200 then most people can justify that kind of expense. Chinese copies are down there or lower so once someone with a name can figure it out the sales will skyrocket.
Then there is the operating system in conjunction with the developer platform, including adoption. Web OS was useable but fell flat when it came to the development market. Android may not currently be the most useable platform but it certainly has plenty of developers these days. People buy new devices because of the apps and developers build more depending on how many people are now or will soon be part of the buyers. If you were wondering this is the main reason that Microsoft keeps going with Windows 7, they are hoping that some tipping point will be reached where the developers build enough stuff to attract more buyers.
So we come back to HP. Over 2 million devices just hit the market and people will be wanting software. If enough developers get going then perhaps there will be a more profitable second round for HP and WebOS. Was this a good bet for the bottom line? No, not by any reasonable measuring stick; so yes the biggest PC maker can get it wrong as well.
The herd instinct is an interesting one. When the HP started to sell the blogs and hot deal sites started to go crazy. Since people now spend quite a bit of time on the Internet a kind of buyer’s mania set in and people who would not normally have bought one raced out and did. People want to part of something. For the Apple fans it is all things Apple for other things if the price is right people will join in just to be part of something. I admit that when I heard about the sale I wanted to buy one but by the time I heard about it and wanted to act it was already too late.
So in conclusion Apple has great looking products but their continued monopoly by law suite and tightly controlled App Store will not guarantee they stay on top for ever. As for HP and WebOS the story is still in progress. They certainly triggered a lot of interest in their tablet product. The example set by HP may see a new flood of lower priced units leaving the iPad up in the clouds. Also as a final observation, no matter how big you are or how well you think you know that the future will be when it comes to computers it is anyone’s game.
Industry News
In related news the latest range of ultra notebooks will mot be shipping in any great quantities for the rest of the year. Everyone remembers the Intel CULV or Consumer Ultra Low Voltage from Intel. You don’t, see there is proof right there. They didn’t do so well so the new term is Ultrabook and Intel is hoping to take some market share beck from the tablets. Brushing off the crystal ball Intel is predicting the wet finger in the air number of 40 percent sales of notebooks in 2012 to be of this new format. They will either take off or not, we will just have to wait and see.
I love scientific invention. The latest one that caught my eye is a single molecule motor that runs on electricity. No it’s not the first tiny engine but the previous ones ran on light or chemicals. Sure you need a tunnelling electron microscope to build it and spin it sitting on a copper surface but it’s cool. Also a practical application is a long way off if at all.
Toshiba has a new thin tablet just 7.7 mm thick and with no rounded corners J It will come with micro USB, micro HDMI and Micro SD slots. I expect more of these devices with all the features the iPads don’t have to continue to appear. In other tablet news Samsung is not going to use the WebOS operating system. Sony has a new Android 3.2 based tablet with a folding screen. Due out in November it is small when folded and of course will play PS2 games.
Acer has laid claim to the first Core-i7 based Ultrabook. The Aspire S3 weighs in at 1.3kg and is 13 mm thick and will also come in i3 and i5 versions. With a 13.3 inch screen it is aimed at the Macbook Air range to give them some competition in that market space. Acer claims 50 days of battery life in deep sleep mode and 6-7 hours in full working mode. It has an instant on functionality that brings the unit up in under 2 seconds. This is the kind of functionality Intel want to put on show for the Ultrabook range.
Yes, you can tell that I have been looking at all kinds of things as I ponder exactly what is going to be in my new PC.
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